Question 2 (b)

The Delphi approach to decision making and its process

9 marks

Time to write
About 18 minutes
Topic
Decision-making
Notes
Crux notes

Question

Question 2 (b) · 9 marks

What do you understand by the Delphi approach to decision making? Giving examples, explain how decisions are made under the Delphi technique.

Reworded from the university paper; the task is the same. The original paper belongs to the University of Delhi. See DU's question bank.

Before you write

Read off the question and its marks

18 minfor 9 marks

Read from the question

  • examplesExamples are asked for: one short example with each point.

Write it in this order

  1. Read; underline the asks; jot your points 1 min
  2. 1 Meaning and features of the Delphi approach 2½ marks 4 min
  3. 2 Process, step by step 4 marks 7 min
  4. 3 Examples 1½ marks 3 min
  5. 4 Merits and limitations 1 mark 2 min
  6. Check: every ask answered, key terms underlined 1 min

Easy marks

  • Step 1 opens with the meaning: a one-line definition, the quickest mark in it.

Short on time? Trim steps 1–3 evenly rather than skip one: each is capped at its own marks. End with step 4 in a line or two.

Try it first. About 18 minutes for 9 marks. Write it out, then open the solution.

Solution

Hover or tap a marked figure, like 72,000, to see how it is made and where else it appears.

Meaning of the Delphi approach

The Delphi technique is a structured way of drawing one considered judgement out of a panel of experts who never meet. It suits questions on which hard data are thin, such as long-range forecasts, and it relies on written, anonymous rounds steered by a coordinator, so that the experts learn from one another's reasoning without seeing who said what. Its key features are anonymity, iteration (several rounds), controlled feedback through the coordinator, and a summary of the group's view at each round. Anonymity prevents domination by senior or vocal members and the pressure to conform, so each expert's judgement is weighed on its merits rather than on who gave it.

Picture itThe Delphi approach to decision making and its process

1Five experts in five rooms answer the same questionnaire; none of them ever meets.

Panel of expertsExperts who never meet; each expert receives a questionnaire and answers independently.

2The coordinator sorts their answers into one summary, names cut away.

Controlled feedbackThe coordinator compiles the answers, showing where the experts agree and differ and the main arguments, without names.

3The summary goes back out; the five answer again, closer this time.

Further roundsRounds continue until the experts' opinions converge.

4She hands the settled report to the management panel.

Final reportThe coordinator presents the consensus, with any remaining differences, to the decision makers.

Process of decision making under the Delphi technique

  1. Defining the problem. The decision maker identifies the question: for example, a forecast or a choice among policies.
  2. Selecting the panel. Experts with relevant knowledge are chosen; they may be in different places.
  3. First questionnaire. Each expert receives a questionnaire and answers independently, giving estimates, opinions and reasons.
  4. Summarising responses. The coordinator compiles the answers, showing where the experts agree and differ and the main arguments, without names.
  5. Second questionnaire with feedback. The summary is sent back; experts reconsider and revise their answers, explaining views that differ sharply from the group.
  6. Further rounds. Rounds continue until the experts' opinions converge, each round narrowing the spread of answers as the experts weigh one another's reasons.
  7. Final report and decision. The coordinator presents the consensus, with any remaining differences, to the decision makers.

Examples

  • A car maker asks automotive engineers, energy economists and dealers to estimate the share of electric vehicles in new car sales ten years from now, to decide on investment in a battery plant.
  • A state government consults public-health experts across districts on the priorities for a new health policy.
  • A university uses a panel of employers and alumni to decide which new skills its courses should include.

Merits and limitations

Merits: avoids the bias of dominant personalities and groupthink; draws on experts in different locations; encourages independent thinking; useful for long-range and uncertain questions where data are lacking.

Limitations: time-consuming; depends heavily on the choice of experts and the skill of the coordinator; there is no direct discussion to clarify ideas; and consensus may hide genuine disagreement.

Where the 9 marks sit

#ComponentMarks
1Meaning and features of the Delphi approach2.5
2Process, step by step4
3Examples1.5
4Merits and limitations1
Total9
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